Preview: UFC 316 ‘Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2’

Bantamweights
Mario Bautista (15-2) vs. Patrick “Patchy” Mix (20-1)
Odds: Mix (-180), Bautista (+150)

An absolutely fascinating matchup here is one of the highlights of the card, as "Patchy" looks to make a splash in his UFC debut while Bautista attempts to regain some fans. Bautista looked like a prospect much better than his low level of experience on the regional scene, but still had some struggles upon making his UFC debut in 2019; a quick loss to Cory Sandhagen was quite understandable, but Bautista's hard-charging style only led to two more wins before a stunning knockout loss to Trevin Jones. That led to Bautista making some minor adjustments, making more of an effort to pick his spots to sell out on aggression, that paid some massive dividends; since the loss to Jones, Bautista has reeled off a seven-fight winning streak. Impressive victories over Da'Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon suggested Bautista had found the right balance between excitement and effectiveness, but then came his October victory over Jose Aldo, a career highlight on paper that has seemingly damaged his reputation. After two back-and-forth rounds, Bautista decided to try and ice the third round with a control-heavy approach that essentially took the fight out of the fight, which was enough to win a split decision but lost Bautista a lot of fans in the process; Aldo's status as a beloved legend played a part, but it generally just seems like it was the wrong place at the wrong time for a shockingly near-unanimous groundswell against Bautista, who was suddenly dubbed an unexciting fighter. On the plus side, at least people now care about Bautista in an increasingly homogenized UFC landscape, and a late opponent switch leads to a lot more excitement around this pairing, now against Mix. Mix now looks to be the last-ever Bellator bantamweight champion, and the New York native seems to be hitting the UFC in the prime of his career; his last win over Magomed Magomedov was a controversial decision win, but Mix's 2023 saw him earn massive finishes of Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis. Coming from a wrestling background, Mix is clearly at his best on the mat; even beyond that wrestling skill, he's a clear elite submission threat even against high-level opponents, possessing an impressively effective guillotine choke to go along with the typical array of submissions that come with his ability to control an opponent. But while Mix is clearly less effective as a striker, he's still quite a potent threat; he keeps a slow pace by default but can land with impressive accuracy and power at times, including with some brutal knees like the one he used to quickly take out Stots. This all makes for what looks like a particularly rough matchup against Bautista; his usual mix of patient striking and aggressive wrestling figures to just get neutralized against Mix working a similar - but more potent - style, and any attempts at aggression are a clear risk in the face of Mix's finishing threats. Mix's cardio can flag at times, so with him taking this fight on short notice there's a chance Bautista can take over by the end of this fight if it turns into a particular level of grind, but Mix seems clearly ahead of Bautista in most aspects if the UFC newcomer shows up close to peak form. The pick is Mix via decision.

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Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley
Pena vs. Harrison
Gastelum vs. Pyfer
Bautista vs. Mix
Luque vs. Holland
The Prelims